Bush Administration Denies Iraq War is Catalyst for Insurgency and Terrorism
Same Old Hubris in Spite of the Evidence?
A declassified version of the controversial National Intelligence Estimate dated April 2006 and released last night states that jihadism is growing and likely to continue doing so in significant part because of the war in Iraq. This point is in stark contrast to the claims of the Bush Administration.
John Negroponte, the National Intelligence Director whose office created the report stated prior to its public release that viewing the document “…through the narrow prism of a fraction of judgments distorts the broad framework they create."
According to various newspaper reports, the National Intelligence Estimate is an analysis that represents a consensus view of all 16 US intelligence agencies. Interestingly, the first bullet point in the 4-page declassified document states “…a large body of all-source reporting indicates that activists identifying themselves as jihadists, although a small percentage of Muslims, are increasing in both number and geographic dispersion.”
This hardly sounds like a narrow prism of distorted judgments, and if it is, why then is it even going to the President?
The document goes on to state “…that the Iraq jihad is shaping a new generation of terrorist leaders and operatives: perceived jihadists success there [in Iraq] would inspire more fighters to continue the struggle elsewhere.” The authors point out that jihadists consider the war in Iraq as their “cause celebre.”
White House statements of the recent past have suggested that even Osama Bin Laden believes the central front of the war is in Iraq, implying that this legitimizes President Bush’ s order to invade. If Bin Laden wants to fight the US in Iraq it is because he knows that as long as we continue fighting the way we are he enjoys a strategic advantage. He believes that Al-Qaeda and others can bled us dry and he can rely on support resulting from anti-American popular support. In reality, most Muslims would not support him in any of his other causes.
Richard Serrano of the LA Times notes that “The White House…sharply disagreed with a new U.S. intelligence assessment that the war in Iraq is encouraging global terrorism,” and that “…Bush administration officials stressed that anti-American fervor in the Muslim world began long before the Sept. 11 attacks.”
Emphasizing this point, White House spokesman, Peter Watkins, added that much of what Islamic extremists “rage” about the United States and Israel goes back generations and is not linked to the US occupation of Iraq. "Their hatred for freedom and liberty did not develop overnight…Those seeds were planted decades ago."
These points are only correct if interpreted in an exceptionally narrow way. The Bush Administration’s continued denial of the key point of this intelligence estimate defies common sense.
In essence, the Administration is arguing that the increased US presence in Iraq after a violent invasion that failed in its objective to find weapons of mass destruction and improve the lives of the average Iraqi has not driven more people into the ranks of the extremists. It also implies that neither did the harsh CPA de-Baathification policies that added over a million trained Iraqi security forces and other civilian leaders (and their dependents) to the unemployment lines. Further, they imply that the mass detention of military age boys and men and that the abuses at Abu Ghraib have not inspired significant growth in the anti-American jihadist ranks. Not to mention the occasional violent military confrontation that has taken place since our arrival.
The NIE also points out that the root causes fueling the spread of jihadism are “…corruption, injustice and fear of Western domination…the Iraq jihad…the slow pace of real and sustained economic, social and political reforms…and pervasive anti-US sentiment among most Muslims.”
What actions have we taken in Iraq that don’t exacerbate these issues?
The presence of foreign powers, high unemployment rates, the lack of consistent utilities and other basic health, security, and social services create enough motivation in and of themselves to drive people to insurgency. In fact, they are the classic root causes for past and present insurgencies around the world. There is little doubt that they have directly contributed to the US war of liberation spinning out of control and into an occupation, and finally into the insurgency we face today.
The Administration ignored many experts who predicted an insurgency well before the invasion. Many of these same experts identified the active insurgency as soon as it presented itself on the battlefield, but again Administration officials denied it existed until it was absolutely too obvious to ignore.
Are we seeing more of the same denial with respect to this national intelligence estimate? Should the American people be surprised that the administration is reacting to bad news as it always has, that is, by flatly denying it? Especially when the bad news is the direct result of its earlier bad decisions?
Any increase of western interaction in the region is a significant threat to radical Islamic groups and is bound to provoke a reaction from them. They believe they have nothing to gain from interaction with the western world, which represents a threat to their political control and core religious beliefs by its mere existence. An Islamic Theocratic Region, absolutely devoid of outside non-Islamic influence, and the elimination of Israel as a state are the goals of Al-Qaeda and their supporters. These goals are unlikely given the West’s traditional support for Israel and our continued need for resources from the region. Significantly, the Islamic extremists represent only small portion of the overall society they claim to represent.
Considering the poor treatment that many Iraqis have suffered at the hands of the US occupation forces, which is the direct result of poor leadership and planning well before the invasion, how can anyone deny that the increase in regional jihadism is not significantly attributable to the war in Iraq? If the war in Iraq hasn’t driven this growth in jihadism, then what has? It certainly didn’t occur on any comparable scale during the first Gulf War and in spite of the fact that the “seeds of hatred for freedom and liberty” were planted decades prior to that time too.
Removing Saddam Hussein from power and attempting to root out potential Iraqi hotbeds of terrorism are certainly great intentions. Nonetheless, the reckless and overconfident nature of the Administration’s Global War on Terror, and specifically its management of the war in Iraq have backfired tremendously. This has caused the exact opposite result. Although we are much safer from Saddam Hussein, we are in much more danger from the spreading jihadist ranks.
The sooner the administration learns to admit this, the sooner we can do something about it.
A declassified version of the controversial National Intelligence Estimate dated April 2006 and released last night states that jihadism is growing and likely to continue doing so in significant part because of the war in Iraq. This point is in stark contrast to the claims of the Bush Administration.
John Negroponte, the National Intelligence Director whose office created the report stated prior to its public release that viewing the document “…through the narrow prism of a fraction of judgments distorts the broad framework they create."
According to various newspaper reports, the National Intelligence Estimate is an analysis that represents a consensus view of all 16 US intelligence agencies. Interestingly, the first bullet point in the 4-page declassified document states “…a large body of all-source reporting indicates that activists identifying themselves as jihadists, although a small percentage of Muslims, are increasing in both number and geographic dispersion.”
This hardly sounds like a narrow prism of distorted judgments, and if it is, why then is it even going to the President?
The document goes on to state “…that the Iraq jihad is shaping a new generation of terrorist leaders and operatives: perceived jihadists success there [in Iraq] would inspire more fighters to continue the struggle elsewhere.” The authors point out that jihadists consider the war in Iraq as their “cause celebre.”
White House statements of the recent past have suggested that even Osama Bin Laden believes the central front of the war is in Iraq, implying that this legitimizes President Bush’ s order to invade. If Bin Laden wants to fight the US in Iraq it is because he knows that as long as we continue fighting the way we are he enjoys a strategic advantage. He believes that Al-Qaeda and others can bled us dry and he can rely on support resulting from anti-American popular support. In reality, most Muslims would not support him in any of his other causes.
Richard Serrano of the LA Times notes that “The White House…sharply disagreed with a new U.S. intelligence assessment that the war in Iraq is encouraging global terrorism,” and that “…Bush administration officials stressed that anti-American fervor in the Muslim world began long before the Sept. 11 attacks.”
Emphasizing this point, White House spokesman, Peter Watkins, added that much of what Islamic extremists “rage” about the United States and Israel goes back generations and is not linked to the US occupation of Iraq. "Their hatred for freedom and liberty did not develop overnight…Those seeds were planted decades ago."
These points are only correct if interpreted in an exceptionally narrow way. The Bush Administration’s continued denial of the key point of this intelligence estimate defies common sense.
In essence, the Administration is arguing that the increased US presence in Iraq after a violent invasion that failed in its objective to find weapons of mass destruction and improve the lives of the average Iraqi has not driven more people into the ranks of the extremists. It also implies that neither did the harsh CPA de-Baathification policies that added over a million trained Iraqi security forces and other civilian leaders (and their dependents) to the unemployment lines. Further, they imply that the mass detention of military age boys and men and that the abuses at Abu Ghraib have not inspired significant growth in the anti-American jihadist ranks. Not to mention the occasional violent military confrontation that has taken place since our arrival.
The NIE also points out that the root causes fueling the spread of jihadism are “…corruption, injustice and fear of Western domination…the Iraq jihad…the slow pace of real and sustained economic, social and political reforms…and pervasive anti-US sentiment among most Muslims.”
What actions have we taken in Iraq that don’t exacerbate these issues?
The presence of foreign powers, high unemployment rates, the lack of consistent utilities and other basic health, security, and social services create enough motivation in and of themselves to drive people to insurgency. In fact, they are the classic root causes for past and present insurgencies around the world. There is little doubt that they have directly contributed to the US war of liberation spinning out of control and into an occupation, and finally into the insurgency we face today.
The Administration ignored many experts who predicted an insurgency well before the invasion. Many of these same experts identified the active insurgency as soon as it presented itself on the battlefield, but again Administration officials denied it existed until it was absolutely too obvious to ignore.
Are we seeing more of the same denial with respect to this national intelligence estimate? Should the American people be surprised that the administration is reacting to bad news as it always has, that is, by flatly denying it? Especially when the bad news is the direct result of its earlier bad decisions?
Any increase of western interaction in the region is a significant threat to radical Islamic groups and is bound to provoke a reaction from them. They believe they have nothing to gain from interaction with the western world, which represents a threat to their political control and core religious beliefs by its mere existence. An Islamic Theocratic Region, absolutely devoid of outside non-Islamic influence, and the elimination of Israel as a state are the goals of Al-Qaeda and their supporters. These goals are unlikely given the West’s traditional support for Israel and our continued need for resources from the region. Significantly, the Islamic extremists represent only small portion of the overall society they claim to represent.
Considering the poor treatment that many Iraqis have suffered at the hands of the US occupation forces, which is the direct result of poor leadership and planning well before the invasion, how can anyone deny that the increase in regional jihadism is not significantly attributable to the war in Iraq? If the war in Iraq hasn’t driven this growth in jihadism, then what has? It certainly didn’t occur on any comparable scale during the first Gulf War and in spite of the fact that the “seeds of hatred for freedom and liberty” were planted decades prior to that time too.
Removing Saddam Hussein from power and attempting to root out potential Iraqi hotbeds of terrorism are certainly great intentions. Nonetheless, the reckless and overconfident nature of the Administration’s Global War on Terror, and specifically its management of the war in Iraq have backfired tremendously. This has caused the exact opposite result. Although we are much safer from Saddam Hussein, we are in much more danger from the spreading jihadist ranks.
The sooner the administration learns to admit this, the sooner we can do something about it.
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