We Cannot Forget the Potential Costs of US Failure in Iraq
It should come as no surprise that the majority Sunni population of Saudi Arabia should feel compelled to support the Sunni minority in Iraq should that group become even more exposed to ethnic violence by Shiite and other factions. A premature exit of US troops would open the door for this exposure and could lead to a disastrous conflagration of the war in the wider region.
Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Syria have majority Sunni populations while Iraq and Iran are predominantly Shiites. The Kurds have ethnic and religious allies in Turkey and other neighboring countries. A withdrawal of US troops and an increase in the intensity of violence in Iraq could compel neighboring countries to take action in support of their ethnic or religious blocs (view map).
The result could be a war that dramatically increases the death and destruction in the region, prolongs the conflict indefinitely, threatens the existence of various Arab governments, disrupts the world’s oil supply, and threatens to absorb the US and other nations into an even larger conflict. The worst case scenario is that anti-Israeli governments in the region decide that the US is stretched too thin by a wider conflict and its commitments around the world to help protect Israel and war ensues there as well. The global economic impact of such a war could be catastrophic.
The Washington Times reported that the Saudi's warning may have been “…exacerbated by growing discussions in Washington aimed at accelerating the timeframe for bringing troops home.”
The New York Times reported that “the Saudi warning reflects fears among America’s Sunni Arab allies about Iran’s rising influence in Iraq, coupled with Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.”
The Saudi’s may be sensing a significant change in the mood of the American people, who are fed up with the lack of progress in Iraq and misled by an unrealistic timeline and potential excuses for withdrawal from Iraq proffered by the Iraq Study Group.
The cost to the US of staying in Iraq for a more reasonable time frame—assuming we also change our strategy to one that eventually transitions the conflict back into a more appropriate counterinsurgency model—will be much less expensive to the US and the world than withdrawing our troops prematurely.
Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Syria have majority Sunni populations while Iraq and Iran are predominantly Shiites. The Kurds have ethnic and religious allies in Turkey and other neighboring countries. A withdrawal of US troops and an increase in the intensity of violence in Iraq could compel neighboring countries to take action in support of their ethnic or religious blocs (view map).
The result could be a war that dramatically increases the death and destruction in the region, prolongs the conflict indefinitely, threatens the existence of various Arab governments, disrupts the world’s oil supply, and threatens to absorb the US and other nations into an even larger conflict. The worst case scenario is that anti-Israeli governments in the region decide that the US is stretched too thin by a wider conflict and its commitments around the world to help protect Israel and war ensues there as well. The global economic impact of such a war could be catastrophic.
The Washington Times reported that the Saudi's warning may have been “…exacerbated by growing discussions in Washington aimed at accelerating the timeframe for bringing troops home.”
The New York Times reported that “the Saudi warning reflects fears among America’s Sunni Arab allies about Iran’s rising influence in Iraq, coupled with Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.”
The Saudi’s may be sensing a significant change in the mood of the American people, who are fed up with the lack of progress in Iraq and misled by an unrealistic timeline and potential excuses for withdrawal from Iraq proffered by the Iraq Study Group.
The cost to the US of staying in Iraq for a more reasonable time frame—assuming we also change our strategy to one that eventually transitions the conflict back into a more appropriate counterinsurgency model—will be much less expensive to the US and the world than withdrawing our troops prematurely.
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Here is an Editorial from the Washington Times that details the likely consequences of US failure in Iraq.
http://www.winthegwot.org/WT_consequences_of_failure_in_Iraq.pdf
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