Most Recent NIE Report Warns of Increasing Civil Conflict in Iraq
According to the Washington Post, the most recent National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iraq charts an increasingly risky situation over the next 18 months “in which the United States has little control.” The still classified NIE also concludes that it is very likely that the decline will continue, and though experts are not sure whether to classify the situation as a civil war they point out that there is still hope for improvement. Various politicians and media pundits have stated that it is time for the Iraqi government to “step up” and be the driving force behind that improvement.
The NIE also points out that “…Iraqi-on-Iraqi violence as the primary source of conflict and the most immediate threat to U.S. goals.” This is exactly the situation that Al-Qaeda has hoped for.
The Director of National Intelligence, John Negroponte, even referred to the NIE in testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee recently, stating that "Iraq is at a precarious juncture” and “that the situation could deteriorate, but there are prospects for increasing stability."
Unfortunately, the prospects to which he referred were apparently dependent upon the commitment of Iraqi government to figure out how to end Sunni-Shiite violence and “the willingness of Iraqi security forces to pursue extremist elements of all kinds." These are requirements that the Iraqis are simply not capable of at this time.
We at WinTheGWOT.org do not believe that this improvement is likely to come from the Iraqi military and police forces as they are constituted today. Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and his supporters are simply incapable of pulling it off—at least, not without continued and significantly refocused US support.
As we have pointed out in past commentaries, the US post-invasion purging of any functioning police and military command and control via de-Baathification means that it is not likely that their new leaders will effectively rise above sectarian interests. They are considerably infiltrated by extremists and have too high a percentage of poorly trained and inexperienced personnel to re-establish effective national institutions and end internal corruption—this is especially so given the intensity of the civil conflict.
We do not advocate an open ended commitment, but we do call for the publishing of an understandable strategy that is supported by a realistic timeline with relevant milestones and deliverables. The US must first create an environment of basic civil safety and security while at the same time properly vetting, stabilizing, and closely monitoring the Iraqi police and military to ensure that they can—and do—live up to their public responsibilities. This may or may not require more US troops, but it will require more time. Only then can Iraq return to a more normal situation in which the average Iraqi has prospects for decent work and reasonable prosperity and much less motivation to risk all of that by turning violently upon his neighbors and US troops.
This would also greatly reduce the effectiveness of both Al-Qaeda in Iraq and hinder the meddling of Iranian and other forces as well and positively impact on the overall Global War on Terror. It would be a major set back to Al-Qaeda’s propaganda and erodes its base of support, and it could even lead to the development of a first-class Iraqi-Arab counterinsurgency/counter terrorism force that would be a tremendously effective ally in the region going forward.
One thing is certain—the Iraqis are not yet ready to step up and this is directly the fault of US policies to date. However dark it may seem today, the majority of Iraqis are growing exhausted by the violence and they are likely to embrace any reasonable security effort that finally starts to put an end to it.
The NIE also points out that “…Iraqi-on-Iraqi violence as the primary source of conflict and the most immediate threat to U.S. goals.” This is exactly the situation that Al-Qaeda has hoped for.
The Director of National Intelligence, John Negroponte, even referred to the NIE in testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee recently, stating that "Iraq is at a precarious juncture” and “that the situation could deteriorate, but there are prospects for increasing stability."
Unfortunately, the prospects to which he referred were apparently dependent upon the commitment of Iraqi government to figure out how to end Sunni-Shiite violence and “the willingness of Iraqi security forces to pursue extremist elements of all kinds." These are requirements that the Iraqis are simply not capable of at this time.
We at WinTheGWOT.org do not believe that this improvement is likely to come from the Iraqi military and police forces as they are constituted today. Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and his supporters are simply incapable of pulling it off—at least, not without continued and significantly refocused US support.
As we have pointed out in past commentaries, the US post-invasion purging of any functioning police and military command and control via de-Baathification means that it is not likely that their new leaders will effectively rise above sectarian interests. They are considerably infiltrated by extremists and have too high a percentage of poorly trained and inexperienced personnel to re-establish effective national institutions and end internal corruption—this is especially so given the intensity of the civil conflict.
We do not advocate an open ended commitment, but we do call for the publishing of an understandable strategy that is supported by a realistic timeline with relevant milestones and deliverables. The US must first create an environment of basic civil safety and security while at the same time properly vetting, stabilizing, and closely monitoring the Iraqi police and military to ensure that they can—and do—live up to their public responsibilities. This may or may not require more US troops, but it will require more time. Only then can Iraq return to a more normal situation in which the average Iraqi has prospects for decent work and reasonable prosperity and much less motivation to risk all of that by turning violently upon his neighbors and US troops.
This would also greatly reduce the effectiveness of both Al-Qaeda in Iraq and hinder the meddling of Iranian and other forces as well and positively impact on the overall Global War on Terror. It would be a major set back to Al-Qaeda’s propaganda and erodes its base of support, and it could even lead to the development of a first-class Iraqi-Arab counterinsurgency/counter terrorism force that would be a tremendously effective ally in the region going forward.
One thing is certain—the Iraqis are not yet ready to step up and this is directly the fault of US policies to date. However dark it may seem today, the majority of Iraqis are growing exhausted by the violence and they are likely to embrace any reasonable security effort that finally starts to put an end to it.
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
Links to this post:
Create a Link
<< Home