The Enemy Does Not Need Another 911 Type Attack
According to a White House press release, President Bush commemorated the 5th anniversary of the Department of Homeland security by saying, "When this department was established following the September the 11th terrorist attacks, it was hard to imagine that we would reach this milestone without another attack on our homeland. For those of you who were here five years ago, you think back to that time -- I don't think we would have predicted that five years later there had not been another attack on us. And it's your vigilance and your hard work that have helped keep this country safe."
Although no one doubts the hard work that various agencies and individuals at DHS have put into securing our country, I think President Bush greatly over simplifies and overstates the level of security that we in the US currently feel. Let’s look at some assumptions. First, the President assumes that it took less than 6-years for the 911 terrorists to conceive, plan, recruit, prepare, and then execute their attacks on 911. It also assumes that the terrorists were simultaneously planning a follow-on attack of similar intensity. It is much more likely that the terrorists were planning how to avoid whatever form of retaliation the US came up with. Although one can look at the chronology of Islamic extremist attacks against the US and see a pattern of an attack every 3-5 years or so, the level of sophistication, planning, and execution of those attacks were primitive in comparison to 911. Only one of those attacks took place in the continental United States. As a result, one cannot say that we are overdue for another 911 style attack.
In fact, one could argue that from the terrorist point of view the 911 attack has been more successful than they could have ever hoped. Since the attack, the US has launched two counterinsurgency based wars relying upon woefully inexperienced and conventionally trained “cold war” military forces. These wars are unpopular around the world and to a significant degree right here at home. The cost of these wars is at the expense of future generations of Americans in terms of social security and Medicare, and no one can predict the future cost of injured and traumatized veterans over their lifetimes.
Our international reputation as the bastion of democracy, hope, and good will in the world has been damaged tremendously by a war predicated on misinformation and possibly outright lies. The inhumane actions at Abu Ghraib, the ruthless and counter-productive de-Baathification policy in Iraq, and the issues arising out of the treatment and due process of detainees at Guantanamo Bay have provided the world with examples of just how evil we can be. These short term and relatively extreme activities are generating more distrust and hatred in the world for the US…especially in the very countries from which the Islamic extremists originate.
At home we have come to the point where we actually debate the forms of torture we will allow instead of how we will prevent human rights abuses. We debate the level of government monitoring of private phone lines we will allow as opposed to protecting our Constitutional rights to privacy, and we have begun combining the intentionally separated security powers of various agencies…all in the name of increased security from future terrorist attacks. It is by taking advantage of conditions such as these that people like Saddam Hussein first came to power.
Financially, the US dollar is weak…weaker even than the Canadian dollar…the housing bubble has burst, and average homeowner equity has dropped below 50% for the first time since World War II. Manufacturing and technical jobs are leaving the US in droves, and the price of oil is through the roof. Whether or not the attack on 911 precipitated the burst of the housing bubble doesn’t matter. It only matters that our enemies believe it and that the US is feeling pain since 911 that we have not felt in decades.
The US sponsored NATO alliance is slowly weakening as its longtime member nations debate their roles and the strategy for the war in Afghanistan. Our moral position versus Russia and other former Soviet Bloc States has all but evaporated. US politicians and politics in general appear to be polarized more than ever, and the two major political parties have presidential front runners who advocate either an all out and dangerous withdrawal from Iraq or continuing on with more of the same flawed military based strategy.
Osama bin Laden and his supporters don’t need to attack the US again like they did on 911 since we are continuing to play right into their hands. In other words, we aren’t making them mad or desperate enough to attack us again. As perverse as this may sound, another attack on the US itself might actually be a sign that we were doing something right.
________________
Matthew B. Rowe
Executive Director
Although no one doubts the hard work that various agencies and individuals at DHS have put into securing our country, I think President Bush greatly over simplifies and overstates the level of security that we in the US currently feel. Let’s look at some assumptions. First, the President assumes that it took less than 6-years for the 911 terrorists to conceive, plan, recruit, prepare, and then execute their attacks on 911. It also assumes that the terrorists were simultaneously planning a follow-on attack of similar intensity. It is much more likely that the terrorists were planning how to avoid whatever form of retaliation the US came up with. Although one can look at the chronology of Islamic extremist attacks against the US and see a pattern of an attack every 3-5 years or so, the level of sophistication, planning, and execution of those attacks were primitive in comparison to 911. Only one of those attacks took place in the continental United States. As a result, one cannot say that we are overdue for another 911 style attack.
In fact, one could argue that from the terrorist point of view the 911 attack has been more successful than they could have ever hoped. Since the attack, the US has launched two counterinsurgency based wars relying upon woefully inexperienced and conventionally trained “cold war” military forces. These wars are unpopular around the world and to a significant degree right here at home. The cost of these wars is at the expense of future generations of Americans in terms of social security and Medicare, and no one can predict the future cost of injured and traumatized veterans over their lifetimes.
Our international reputation as the bastion of democracy, hope, and good will in the world has been damaged tremendously by a war predicated on misinformation and possibly outright lies. The inhumane actions at Abu Ghraib, the ruthless and counter-productive de-Baathification policy in Iraq, and the issues arising out of the treatment and due process of detainees at Guantanamo Bay have provided the world with examples of just how evil we can be. These short term and relatively extreme activities are generating more distrust and hatred in the world for the US…especially in the very countries from which the Islamic extremists originate.
At home we have come to the point where we actually debate the forms of torture we will allow instead of how we will prevent human rights abuses. We debate the level of government monitoring of private phone lines we will allow as opposed to protecting our Constitutional rights to privacy, and we have begun combining the intentionally separated security powers of various agencies…all in the name of increased security from future terrorist attacks. It is by taking advantage of conditions such as these that people like Saddam Hussein first came to power.
Financially, the US dollar is weak…weaker even than the Canadian dollar…the housing bubble has burst, and average homeowner equity has dropped below 50% for the first time since World War II. Manufacturing and technical jobs are leaving the US in droves, and the price of oil is through the roof. Whether or not the attack on 911 precipitated the burst of the housing bubble doesn’t matter. It only matters that our enemies believe it and that the US is feeling pain since 911 that we have not felt in decades.
The US sponsored NATO alliance is slowly weakening as its longtime member nations debate their roles and the strategy for the war in Afghanistan. Our moral position versus Russia and other former Soviet Bloc States has all but evaporated. US politicians and politics in general appear to be polarized more than ever, and the two major political parties have presidential front runners who advocate either an all out and dangerous withdrawal from Iraq or continuing on with more of the same flawed military based strategy.
Osama bin Laden and his supporters don’t need to attack the US again like they did on 911 since we are continuing to play right into their hands. In other words, we aren’t making them mad or desperate enough to attack us again. As perverse as this may sound, another attack on the US itself might actually be a sign that we were doing something right.
________________
Matthew B. Rowe
Executive Director
posted by Matt Rowe at 9:23 AM
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